The Atlanta Dream already had plenty to play for tonight.
Now?
The opportunity sitting in front of them just got even bigger.
Atlanta enters Game 2 against the Washington Mystics with a 1-0 series lead after Sunday’s 92-77 victory. Win tonight in Washington, and the Dream will advance to the WNBA semifinals for the first time since 2016. WNBA
But we now know exactly who would be waiting for them.
Not the No. 1 seed.
Not the 33-win Minnesota Lynx.
The New York Liberty.
New York completed one of the biggest upsets in WNBA playoff history Tuesday night, beating Minnesota 87-71 to sweep the No. 1 seed 2-0. The eighth-seeded Liberty became the first No. 8 seed in league history to eliminate a No. 1 seed. New York Post
And if Atlanta takes care of business tonight?
We’re getting Dream-Liberty again.
Considering what happened just over a week ago?
I think Atlanta should be VERY excited about that possibility.
First Things First: Finish Washington
I’m not skipping ahead.
Atlanta still has work to do.
Washington is playing at home with its season on the line tonight at 7 p.m. ET at CareFirst Arena, with ESPN carrying Game 2. WNBA
The Mystics are going to be desperate.
They’re going to be more physical.
They’re going to make adjustments.
And Atlanta absolutely cannot assume Sunday’s 15-point victory means tonight will be easy.
Washington actually led 41-36 at halftime in Game 1 before Atlanta completely flipped the game in the third quarter. The Dream forced 22 turnovers, scored 27 points off those mistakes and set a franchise playoff record with 16 steals. AOL.com
Rhyne Howard finished with 26 points and five steals.
Allisha Gray had 22.
Jordin Canada finished with 10 points and 11 assists.
Angel Reese recorded 13 points and 12 rebounds in her playoff debut. AOL.com
That’s the good.
But Washington also outrebounded Atlanta 50-31.
That’s the part Atlanta has to fix. The Washington Post
I’ve already written about why Madina Okot might be Atlanta’s Game 2 X-factor.
Whether it’s Okot, Naz Hillmon, Reese or simply better team rebounding, Atlanta cannot give Washington that many extra opportunities again.
Take care of that problem.
Protect the basketball.
Bring the same defensive pressure.
And end this thing tonight.
Because the reward on the other side suddenly looks extremely interesting.
New York Just Changed Atlanta’s Entire Side of the Bracket
Let’s appreciate what happened Tuesday.
Minnesota entered the playoffs as the No. 1 seed at 33-11. New York entered as the No. 8 seed at 26-18. WNBA
On paper?
Minnesota was supposed to be the team waiting in the semifinals.
Instead, New York walked into the postseason and beat the Lynx twice.
The Liberty won Game 1 91-75.
Then New York came home Tuesday and won Game 2 87-71. Yahoo Sports
Jonquel Jones was dominant Tuesday with 21 points and 13 rebounds.
Breanna Stewart scored 21.
Sabrina Ionescu added 18 points and seven assists, knocking down four threes. New York Post
Let’s make something clear.
New York is dangerous.
This is not me saying Atlanta suddenly has an easy path.
The Liberty won the Commissioner’s Cup this season. They have championship experience everywhere. Stewart is still one of the best players in basketball. Jones can dominate a playoff game inside.
But if you’re Atlanta?
Wouldn’t you rather see New York than the No. 1 seed?
I would.
Especially because we literally just watched Atlanta beat the Liberty twice.
Atlanta Beat New York Twice in Three Days
This is where things get fascinating.
Atlanta’s final two regular-season games were both at Barclays Center.
Same opponent.
Same building.
Two wins.
The first:
Dream 95, Liberty 84.
Jordin Canada scored 19.
Reese had 18 points and 10 rebounds.
DeWanna Bonner scored 17.
Howard added 16.
Five Dream players finished in double figures. WNBA
Two nights later?
Atlanta did it again.
Dream 83, Liberty 65.
Atlanta held New York to only 26 first-half points, forced 12 turnovers before halftime and clinched home-court advantage with the victory. Atlanta Dream
That’s a combined score of:
Atlanta 178, New York 149.
A 29-point advantage across two games.
And those games happened last week.
That’s not ancient regular-season history.
Those teams remember exactly what happened.
But Don’t Make the Mistake of Thinking New York Is the Same Team
Here’s the warning.
The Liberty team that just eliminated Minnesota looked considerably different.
Jonquel Jones looked like the dominant interior force we’ve seen throughout her career.
Sabrina Ionescu looked comfortable.
Breanna Stewart looked like Breanna Stewart.
New York never trailed in Game 2. New York Post
This is why the playoffs are so fascinating.
Atlanta could say:
We just beat these people twice.
New York could say:
We just eliminated the No. 1 seed.
Both would be right.
And that’s exactly why I would love this matchup.
Angel Reese vs. Jonquel Jones Would Be a WAR
If Atlanta advances, this immediately becomes one of my favorite matchups.
Angel Reese against Jonquel Jones.
Jones just gave Minnesota 21 points and 13 rebounds in an elimination game. New York Post
We already know what Reese does.
She led the WNBA in rebounding during the regular season and finished Game 1 against Washington with another double-double. WNBA
But this is where the absence of Brionna Jones would become even more significant.
New York has size.
Atlanta would need Reese.
It would need Hillmon.
It would need Okot.
It might need Sika Koné.
I’ve already written about why Okot’s development could matter sooner than anybody expected.
A semifinal series against Jonquel Jones would certainly qualify as sooner.
Atlanta Already Found a Way to Attack New York
This is another reason the potential matchup should give Dream fans confidence.
Atlanta didn’t beat New York the same way twice.
In the 95-84 victory, the Dream used balanced offense.
Canada attacked.
Reese produced inside.
Bonner gave Atlanta 17.
Howard and Gray came alive in the second half. WNBA
Then two nights later, Atlanta won with defense.
The Dream weren’t particularly efficient offensively in the first half, shooting only 39%.
Didn’t matter.
They held New York to seven points in the second quarter. Atlanta Dream
That’s what I like.
Atlanta has already shown it can beat New York in multiple ways.
And that’s exactly what you need in a best-of-five playoff series.
Rhyne Howard Could Be the Difference
If Atlanta gets there, Rhyne Howard becomes one of the biggest reasons I would believe the Dream can win.
Howard looked like a superstar Sunday.
26 points.
Five steals.
Perfect 10-of-10 at the free-throw line. AOL.com
I’ve written about why Rhyne Howard deserves to be viewed among the WNBA’s elite players.
This postseason is her chance to make that argument impossible to ignore.
New York has stars.
Stewart.
Ionescu.
Jones.
Atlanta has stars too.
Howard.
Gray.
Reese.
And Howard’s ability to impact games defensively gives Atlanta something particularly valuable against a Liberty team with multiple perimeter creators.
But again…
We’re getting ahead of ourselves.
Tonight Is Actually the Bigger Test
That’s the funny thing about all of this.
New York beating Minnesota might make Atlanta’s path look more appealing.
It also makes tonight more dangerous.
Because now everybody knows what’s waiting.
Players know.
Fans know.
Atlanta knows.
It’s human nature to start looking ahead.
Don’t.
Washington is good enough to punish Atlanta for doing that.
The Mystics finished the regular season 28-16 and won two of three against Atlanta. WNBA
They led Game 1 at halftime.
Shakira Austin grabbed 16 rebounds.
Kiki Iriafen grabbed 14.
Sonia Citron scored 25. The Washington Post
Washington doesn’t need to reinvent itself tonight.
It needs to protect the basketball.
If the Mystics reduce those 22 turnovers and dominate the glass again, Atlanta could be in for a fight.
That’s why the Dream have to approach Game 2 like the season is on the line for them, too.
Don’t Give Washington a Game 3
This is my biggest thing tonight.
Atlanta earned home court so that a Game 3 would be back in Atlanta.
Great.
I don’t want it.
Don’t give a young Washington team another game.
Don’t give Austin and Iriafen another opportunity to punish Atlanta inside.
Don’t give the Mystics confidence.
Don’t put yourself in a one-game elimination situation Friday night when you currently control the series.
Finish it now.
Atlanta has the better team.
Atlanta has more experience.
Atlanta has three legitimate stars.
Atlanta just beat Washington by 15 despite shooting 28.6% in the first half and getting outrebounded by 19. The Washington Post
Fix even one of those things tonight and Atlanta should feel very good about its chances.
And Then Give Me New York
I’m trying not to get too far ahead.
But come on.
If Atlanta finishes this tonight?
Give me Dream-Liberty.
Atlanta against the team it just beat twice.
Reese against Jonquel Jones.
Howard against Ionescu.
Gray against Stewart and New York’s perimeter defenders.
Bonner against a veteran team that understands postseason basketball.
Two teams that would enter the semifinals feeling like they just proved something.
New York just knocked off the No. 1 seed.
Atlanta has an opportunity tonight to win its first playoff series since 2016. WNBA
That would be fun.
And here’s the bigger point.
A week ago, Atlanta’s path to the WNBA Finals potentially ran through the league’s No. 1 seed.
Today?
That No. 1 seed is gone.
That’s not something Atlanta controls.
But it is an opportunity.
Championship runs almost always contain moments where the bracket suddenly opens differently than anyone expected.
This might be Atlanta’s moment.
The Dream can’t capitalize on it tonight by thinking about New York.
They capitalize by taking care of Washington.
Rebound better.
Force turnovers.
Let Howard attack.
Get Reese involved.
Let Canada control the game.
Use Bonner’s experience.
And when Washington inevitably makes its run?
Don’t panic.
Atlanta already showed in Game 1 that it can take Washington’s best punch and respond.
Do it one more time.
Because if the Dream win tonight, the conversation changes completely.
We’re no longer talking about whether Atlanta can finally win a playoff series.
We’re talking about Atlanta being four wins away from the WNBA Finals — with a familiar opponent standing in the way.
Finish Washington.
Then give me New York.
