It’s official.
After months of basketball, 44 regular-season games and a furious five-game winning streak to close the year, the Atlanta Dream finally know who they’ll see first in the WNBA playoffs.
The Washington Mystics are coming to Atlanta.
Washington secured the No. 5 seed Thursday night with a 101-93 victory over Chicago, while Atlanta had already locked itself into the No. 4 seed at 30-14. That means the Dream will host the Mystics in Game 1 of their first-round series Sunday.
And honestly?
This should be a really fun series.
Washington won two of the three regular-season meetings, so Atlanta certainly shouldn’t take this matchup lightly. But the Dream team entering the postseason looks considerably different from the one Washington saw earlier in the year.
Atlanta has won five straight.
The defense is rolling.
Allisha Gray is coming off a 24-point performance.
DeWanna Bonner is starting to find her place.
Rhyne Howard and Angel Reese are playing some of their best basketball.
And after fighting all season to secure home-court advantage, Atlanta gets to open the postseason in front of its own fans.
So now that we officially know the matchup, here are the five things I’m watching most closely.
1. Angel Reese vs. Washington’s Frontcourt
Let’s start with the matchup I’m most excited to see.
Angel Reese against Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen.
That’s going to be physical.
Washington has one of the league’s most intriguing young frontcourts, and the Mystics finished the regular season as one of the WNBA’s strongest rebounding teams.
Atlanta has something pretty useful to counter that.
The best rebounder in basketball.
Reese finished the regular season averaging 16.4 points and 12.1 rebounds, while becoming the first player in WNBA history to reach 500 rebounds in a season.
And thankfully, the concern from Wednesday appears to have been minor.
Reese was medically cleared to return after taking a hit to the face against New York, but Karl Smesko elected to keep her out of the second half with Atlanta controlling the game. Her availability is not expected to be affected for the playoffs.
That’s huge.
I’ve written before about why Angel Reese has shown Atlanta should hand her the keys to the franchise.
Now she gets her first opportunity to lead Atlanta in the postseason.
And with Brionna Jones unavailable, Reese’s importance only increases.
If she controls the glass against Washington?
Atlanta will be in a really good position.
2. Can Atlanta Push the Pace?
This might be the biggest strategic key for me.
Washington has already shown that it can make Atlanta uncomfortable.
The Dream won the first regular-season meeting 109-77, but Washington responded by winning the next two 81-76 and 79-74.
Notice something?
The scoring.
Washington doesn’t want to get into a track meet with Atlanta.
The Dream averaged 91.3 points per game during the regular season compared with Washington’s 83.6.
That’s where I think Atlanta has an advantage.
Run.
Let Jordin Canada push the basketball.
Let Howard and Gray attack before Washington’s defense gets set.
Let Reese run the floor.
Turn steals into transition opportunities.
Atlanta doesn’t need to prove it can beat Washington at Washington’s preferred style.
Make Washington play Atlanta’s game.
If this series consistently gets into the 90s, I like where Atlanta stands.
3. Rhyne Howard Could Completely Change This Series
Washington’s size is going to receive plenty of attention.
But the player who could blow this entire matchup open might be Rhyne Howard.
Howard’s shooting creates a problem.
If Washington collapses toward Reese?
Howard is waiting outside.
If the Mystics stay attached to Howard?
Reese gets more space.
If they send extra attention toward both?
Now Gray and Canada have room to attack.
That’s what makes Atlanta’s offense so difficult when everything is clicking.
And Howard enters the postseason after rewriting the WNBA record book from behind the arc.
I’ve already written about why Rhyne Howard deserves to be discussed among the WNBA’s elite players.
Now she gets the postseason stage.
Atlanta doesn’t necessarily need 30 points from Howard.
But if she hits four or five threes?
Washington’s defensive game plan becomes considerably more complicated.
4. Atlanta’s Depth Could Become a Major Advantage
This might be the part of the series I’m most interested in.
Atlanta doesn’t have Brionna Jones.
That’s obviously a significant loss.
But the Dream have spent all season building depth behind their stars.
Naz Hillmon just scored 16 points in the regular-season finale against New York.
We’ve already seen flashes from Madina Okot that suggest she could be part of Atlanta’s future frontcourt.
Sika Koné gives Atlanta another physical rebounder.
Isobel Borlase can provide instant offense.
And then there’s Bonner.
That’s the player I’m really watching.
Bonner scored 17 points Monday against New York, her best performance since joining Atlanta.
This is why you sign someone with her experience.
Atlanta doesn’t need Bonner to become the best player on the team.
It needs her to give Smesko options.
Go small?
Bonner can play the four.
Need another scorer?
Bonner.
Need experience late in a close playoff game?
Bonner.
That’s why Atlanta’s contingency plan has become such an important part of this season.
The Dream have lost players.
But they haven’t run out of options.
5. State Farm Arena Could Be Atlanta’s X-Factor
This is the part I’m most excited about.
Playoff basketball is coming to State Farm Arena.
Atlanta spent the entire season fighting for home court.
Now we get to see whether it matters.
The first round uses a 1-1-1 best-of-three format, meaning Atlanta hosts Game 1 and would also host a deciding Game 3 if the series goes the distance.
That’s a massive advantage.
And I’ve been talking about this possibility for weeks.
I previously wrote about why State Farm Arena could become the Dream’s hidden playoff advantage.
Now we’re about to find out.
This team has generated a different level of excitement in Atlanta this season.
Reese’s arrival has brought attention.
Howard continues becoming a bigger star.
Gray has played at an All-Star level.
The Dream have won 30 games.
Now Atlanta gets an opportunity to put all of that in front of a downtown playoff crowd.
If this series reaches Game 3?
Washington has to come back to Atlanta.
That’s exactly why securing the No. 4 seed mattered so much.
Don’t Let the Regular-Season Series Scare You
Yes.
Washington beat Atlanta twice.
That matters.
I’m not ignoring it.
But I’m also not pretending the Dream are entering Sunday as the exact same team.
Atlanta has won five consecutive games.
Washington has won four straight.
Both teams are playing extremely well.
That’s what makes this matchup so interesting.
Atlanta also knows exactly how Washington wants to beat it because it’s already happened twice.
That’s useful.
The Mystics want to make things physical.
They want to rebound.
They want to slow Atlanta down.
They want to turn this into a half-court game.
Okay.
Now Smesko gets several days to prepare specifically for that.
And Atlanta has considerably more offensive firepower than it did during some of those earlier meetings.
The Dream Are Entering the Playoffs at the Perfect Time
This is ultimately what gives me confidence.
Forget the matchup for a second.
Look at Atlanta.
The Dream closed the regular season with five straight victories.
They beat Minnesota before the World Cup break.
Then came back and destroyed Connecticut.
Beat Chicago.
Beat New York.
Then beat New York again.
Atlanta finished 30-14.
The defense has been excellent.
The offense has multiple creators.
Bonner is becoming more comfortable.
Reese is healthy.
Howard is dangerous.
Canada just completed a 300-assist season.
Gray finished the regular season with 24 points in Atlanta’s biggest seeding game of the year.
That’s how you want to enter the playoffs.
Not limping in.
Rolling in.
Atlanta Has Everything It Needs
Washington is good.
Really good.
Austin is dangerous.
Iriafen can hurt Atlanta on the glass.
Sonia Citron can score.
The Mystics already know they can beat the Dream.
That’s what makes this fun.
But Atlanta has spent this entire season building toward exactly this moment.
Thirty wins.
Home court.
Multiple stars.
A deep bench.
A veteran champion added for the postseason.
A head coach who has transformed the way Atlanta plays.
And one of the hottest teams in basketball entering Game 1.
The regular-season series is over.
It doesn’t matter anymore.
Atlanta doesn’t need to beat Washington three times.
It needs two.
And the Dream get two opportunities to do it in Atlanta.
The matchup is set.
Now it’s time to see what this team can do in the playoffs.
